Output Plots
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Output Plots

    The ensemble was run retroactively for the 2001 season.  The 2002 runs were run (mostly) in real-time. The 2003 runs were also in real-time, but were later rerun due to problems with availability of the GFS ensemble background fields. Problems in calculating the strike probabilities have been solved, and all plots have been updated as of March 31, 2004.

There are several types of products available:
  • 'Swarm' loops, which show all the ensemble member and ensemble mean track forecasts, as well as the ensemble-derived strike probabilities.
  • Maximum cumulative probability plots, which show the cumulative ensemble strike probability through 72 hours and 120 hours.
  • NHC strike probabilities through 72 hours.
  • Track forecasts of operational and experimental barotropic forecast aids and CLIPER, as well as the Kilo-Ensemble mean track forecast and a MUDBAR control forecast.
  • Track forecasts of the NCEP GFS ensemble members and ensemble mean.
  • Track forecasts of other operational regional full-physics models (like the GFDL model) and global models (like the NOGAPS and UK Met models).

For more information, see explanation of plots

 

On to the validation section . . .