Papers
Peer-reviewed Publications
Vigh, J., S. R. Fulton, M. DeMaria, and W. H. Schubert, 2003: Evaluation of a multigrid barotropic tropical cyclone track model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1629-1636. [PDF]
Masters Thesis
Vigh, J., 2004: Forecasting of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using a Kilo-Member
Ensemble. M.S. thesis, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, Colorado 80523, 174 pp.
Conference Proceedings
Vigh, J., 2002: Track Forecasting of 2001 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using a Kilo-Member Ensemble. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 212-213. [PDF]
Vigh, J., 2004: Evaluation of a Kilo-Ensemble for Track Forecasting. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
160-161. [PDF]
Conference Presentations
April 30, 2002 "Track Forecasting of 2001 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using a Kilo-Member Ensemble"
Presented in Session 4D: Tropical Prediction II at the 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, April 28-May 3, 2002.
This talk focused on the ensemble design and gave some preliminary results. (PowerPoint)
May 5, 2004 "Evaluation of a Kilo-Ensemble for Track Forecasting"
Presented in Session 5C: Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability I: Track
at the 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL from
May 3-7, 2004. This talk presented results of the kilo-ensemble research,
including ensemble track forecasts, plots of explicitly-calculated strike probabilities,
the reliability of the ensemble envelope, and the spread vs. error relationship.
(PowerPoint)
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