ValidationValidation of the ensemble is done by comparing the ensemble track forecasts with the best track, other forecast aids, climatology and persistance (CLIPER), etc. Validation of the ensemble-computed strike probabilities
should ultimately involve the use of the Brier Skill Score and the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC).
- Seasonal verification of total ensemble mean and subensemble mean track forecasts for 2001, 2002, and 2003 seasons:
- Comparison with control member
- Comparison with randomly selected subensembles of various sizes
- Comparison with other barotropic models
- Comparison with the GFS ensemble track forecasts
- Comparison with full physics and global models
- Comparison with other ensembles (GUNA, AEMN)
- Verification of explicitly computed strike probabilities
- Comparison with NHC strike probabilities (not done yet)
- Comparison with strike probabilities estimated from the GFS ensembles
- Comparison with strike probabilities estimated from hybrid ensembles
- Determination of the ensemble spread vs. ensemble error relationship
- Evaluation of the reliability of the ensemble envelope
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