Kilo-Member Ensemble Swarm Animation

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Kilo-Member Ensemble Swarm Animation

This animation shows probabilistic track output from the kilo-member ensemble for each forecast time period. Color contours indicate the probability (in percent) of the center passing within 75 statute miles of each grid point (computed for a 1 x 1 deg. lat/lon grid). Small black dots indicate the forecast location of each ensemble member, while the white dots show the forecast locations of the 26 subensembles. The black line with filled-circle marker indicates the forecast track of the total ensemble mean forecast, while the red line with open circle-dot marker designates the observed best track of the storm.